An Insider's View of Chicago's Commercial Real Estate

2009 Market Overview: Observations & Analysis

Seller's bottom line:
According to Jones Lang Lasalle, since the peak of commercial real estate sale in 2007, the capital markets have significantly slowed down in the first half of 2009. Commercial real estate has started and will continue to decrease in value. Owners that need to refinance are finding credit hard to come by. Landlords find their tenants are in trouble and paying rent late or not at all. The banks are over-collateralized and not lending the tenant or landlord the credit they need to bridge the gap.

Buyer's bottom line:
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) conditions are weak in 2010 and banks with short falls will begin to divest troubled assets. Defaults equals foreclosures and distressed sales. Small Business Administration (SBA) lending is increasing given the stimulus package. User-buyers are at an advantage, as banks that specialize in SBA loans continue to lend. However, money is running out and Congress has yet to clarify a solution for the small business owner's credit line.

Investors bottom line:
Cash is king, credit is non-existent. There are two camps businesses seem to fall into. The first includes large corporate companies that are cash rich or have the government bailing them out. The second includes small businesses with slow sales and no credit to bridge the gap. Investing strictly in commercial real estate such as office, retail or warehousing may be difficult unless the owner can hold the property for a minimum of 5 years. However, mixed-use developments look good to investors. As the residential apartment rental market continues to increase any mixed-use development that has a favorable ratio of residential apartments to commercial space seems to be catching the investors fancy.

Tenant's bottom line:
Landlords still have a mortgage to pay. Rents are decreasing and Tenant Improvements (construction, free rent) are increasing. Leveraging the commercial real estate your business utilizes can bring in savings and increase the bottom line.